Steel production also increased in an annual comparison but, despite this, inventories at warehouses have been steadily going down since early October, indicating strong demand through the whole of the supply chain, although stocks increased slightly in late … The daily average output still managed to climb to 96,700 tonnes per day in September, according to Reuters calculations, up from about 95,900 tonnes per day in August, which has one more day. Shanghai aluminium prices are currently hovering around the 14,000 yuan ($1,980) a tonne mark often considered a break-even price for Chinese smelters, while spot aluminium premiums exceeded 100 yuan/t. The pandemic brought on substantial growth in single-serving consumption of carbonated beverages. Stream live futures and options market data directly from CME Group. Lightening of vehicles must b… “The story for 2020 is likely to be about the pace at which smelter cuts emerge to balance demand trends.”. Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX. The London Metal Exchange index of six base metals inched up only 1% so far this year, held back by worries about a possible global recession and the trade war. Analysts expect cash LME aluminium to average US$ 1814 a tonne in 2020, up 6% from the current price. Erik Norland is Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. Create a CMEGroup.com Account: More features, more insights. Prior to the tariffs, U.S. prices were about 10% higher than the global average. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. One of the conclusions of the LME Week (held between October 27 and November 1) is that a combination of weak macroeconomic data and an anticipated increase of global aluminium supplies is prompting expectations that more metal will be held in financing deals for long-term gain. World primary aluminium production fell in September to 5.163 million tonnes, down 2.6% year-on-year and 3.12% on the month, according to the latest data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). The aluminium market is oversupplied despite many people forecasting a deficit, consultancy Harbor Aluminum’s managing director Jorge Vazquez told delegates at the LME Week seminar. The current aluminium price “is just high enough above cost of production” to allow smelters to launch or resume operations after shutdowns, AZ China’s Adkins said. Despite some encouraging signs, aluminium price has extended its weakness in October (4th quarter), trading in the range US$ 1696-1738/tonne. Aluminum isn’t an exception. Investors don’t seem to think that the Administration is likely to change its tariff policy soon. more information Accept. Production of primary aluminium stood at 4.109 million tonnes in the first nine months of this year. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). Lindian Gets Guinean Government Go Ahead For Purchase Of 61 Percent Of Woula Bauxite Project, Aluminij Mostar Inks Aluminium Billet Offtake Agreement With Glencore, Rusal Earns A- Rating From Carbon Disclosure Product In First-Ever Evaluation. The September daily rate was the highest since June. Our aluminium market analysis focuses on supply and demand fundamentals, price dynamics and forecasts for the entire value chain, including upstream and downstream markets. Sign up to our weekly newsletter! After remaining elevated, in the range of $1,850 per metric ton to $1,950 per metric ton, aluminum prices decreased in the second half of 2019, to reach close to … The main downside risk to U.S. aluminum prices could be a sudden removal of tariffs. Now, they are almost 20% higher. “The current demand downturn has the misfortune of being timed with the start of the strongest period for ex-China supply growth since the late 1990s,” said analyst Nicholas Snowdon at Deutsche Bank in London. As such, when it comes to aluminum, we would be inclined to pay more attention to the Li Keqiang measure of growth than to official Chinese GDP. What’s more, a large part of stocks is being kept in unregistered (non-LME) warehouses, which means availability is still ample. Demand for aluminium in North America improved by 5.6% in comparison with 2014. Access real-time data, charts, analytics and news from anywhere at anytime. As well as a five-year view, we also provide a 25-year forecast for aluminium supply, demand and prices. The growing volume of recycled aluminum may help reduce the imbalance of supply and demand in the aluminum industry. However, should the U.S. apply tariffs to a wider set of goods or increase the tariffs from 10% to 25%, the economic impact on China will start to be measurable. In the Middle East, primary aluminium production increased by 4.35% year-on-year to 456,000 tonnes last month. Material demand and supply are broadly linked to energy, water, and climate change. Aluminum prices in the U.S. are on the rise and could lead to reduced consumption and a glut in Europe and Asia. Despite many contradictory estimates and forecasts, the consensus among all major producers is that global aluminium demand growth will be flat (around zero) this year. This apparent stability might reflect the growing diversification of the Chinese economy into services but nevertheless we think that it understates the true degree of volatility in China’s industrial sector. Industrial activity is expected to have shrunk for the sixth month in October, a Reuters poll showed, suggesting hardly any relief from slowing global demand and the trade war. Aluminium and other base metals prices are expected to be capped next year as weak economic growth weighs on the market, the latest Reuters poll showed (Oct. 28). Understand how the bond market moved back to its normal trading range, despite historic levels of volatility. Search our directory for a broker that fits your needs. Total exports of unwrought aluminum, including primary metal, alloy and semis, were 5.8 million tonnes last year, up 21 percent on 2017. Production amounted to 47.549 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2019, dropping 0.99% from 48.023 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2018. In the U.S., the substitution of aluminum for steel in car manufacturing, such as Ford's F-150 model, will be positive for demand. The latest report added by DecisionDatabases on Aluminum Gratings Market covered many aspects of the current and future scenarios and a brief analysis of pre and post COVID-19 analysis. Any slowdown in China could create a global supply glut that could depress prices, especially in Europe and Japan. Supply and demand balance Market to remain very tight, with estimated 455Kt global deficit Tradable commodity grade production to fall as producers increase VAP output Tight primary/secondary spreads to continue to underpin the demand for primary aluminium Attractiveness of “cash and carry” deals Chinese demand will be critical for the future direction of aluminum prices globally. Protect your portfolio with Metals futures and options. The Li Keqiang index correlates aluminum prices at between 0.5 and 0.6 up to five quarters in advance (Figure 3). Explore historical market data straight from the source to help refine your trading strategies. But the average is deceptive, because sharp gains for nickel of over 50% cover the fact that half of the metals are in the red, with losses of up to 15%. In September, China’s aluminium production fell 1.6% from a year earlier, following outages at two big smelters this summer: top producer China Hongqiao Group’s facilities were hit by flooding on Aug. 11, and Xinfa Group also closed pot lines due to an explosion a week later. © 2020 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved. According to information from customs authorities, China exported 4.37 million tonnes of unwrought aluminium and semi-aluminium products in the first nine months of the year – 2.8% more than in the previous year. Compared to earlier polls, analysts significantly lowered their forecasts for the average aluminium price next year. For instance, reports on mining operations 4 in India have indicated that despite relevant businesses being deemed “essential” (and thus allowed to remain open during lockdowns), activity is slowing down significantly. While Americans have to pay higher prices as a result of the tariff, premiums paid in Europe and Japan have fallen slightly. New Delhi: Aluminium prices on Monday softened by 0.18 per cent to Rs 136.50 per kg in futures trade as speculators cut bets amid subdued demand in spot market. In the first half of 2015, global aluminium demand rose by 6.3% to 28.6 million tonnes as a result of stronger demand in North America and the EU. By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. While tariffs have a direct impact upon regional pricing, especially in North America, they could also have indirect consequences for aluminum prices generally. Mostar signed a five-year deal this week with British-Swiss firm Glencore plc for the supply... Russian Federation aluminium giant UC Rusal announced yesterday that it has received an A- rating in its first-ever assessment by... Base metals prices reacted positively to the progress registered in the latest round of US – China trade talks in mid-October, but the markets remained cautious about the prospects for a final agreement. The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. It is essential to address a situation like Coronavirus in the present study. Hear from active traders about their experience adding CME Group futures and options on futures to their portfolio. World primary aluminium production fell in September to 5.163 million tonnes, down 2.6% year-on-year and 3.12% on the month, according to the latest data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). 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